Detroit Tigers Weekend Recap

The Bash Brothers


No One Team Should Have All That Power



Detroit Tigers (3-0)

As you may have heard, the Detoit Tigers opened their season on Thursday, by walking off on the Boston Red Sox, 3-2.  I did a game recap, which can be found here.  Saturday, the Tigers lost Doug Fister in the 4th inning to an apparent side injury that was later classified as a "left costochondral strain".  Fellow contributor Ryan is an exercise science major, and he had this to say: "his rib has an owie."  No matter, as the Tigers pounded out 5 HR's while riding the arm of Duane Below to squeak out a 10-0 win.  Cabby and Prince went yard two times a piece, and Avila added a paltry single home run to complete the quintuplet of long bombs.  Fister was placed on the DL following the game, and Bryan Villarreal was called up from Triple A to replace him.  Common logic dictated that the Villarreal move would mean moving Duane Below to the rotation, but, not so fast my friend(s).  Leyland has not named a replacement starter for Fister, as he sent the scouts to Toledo this evening to watch Andy Oliver pitch; and will head to Toledo on Monday night to watch Casey Crosby throw personally.  More on all that later.

Today, the Tigers played one of the most exhilarating, up and down games in recent memory.  They jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first on the heels of a Jackson leadoff double, Cabrera RBI single, and, several batter later, a Jhonny Peralta 3-run double.  Scherzer had some of the best STUFF I've seen him with.  His fastball was excellent, sitting 94-95 with great arm side life with tilt, his slider had good bite, and his changeup had the same movement as his fastball, with perhaps more armside fade, but at 10 MPH slower.  There was one issue.  When I threw a golf ball at my roommate's head the other day from 3 stories down and across the parking lot, I had better command than Max did today.  After the first inning, he couldn't buy a well-placed pitch, and the Red Sox spent the majority of innings 2 and 3 either walking to first, running to first, or limping to first after being drilled.  Safe to say it wasn't Max's best day.

As for the offense.  Austin Jackson continues to impress with his sizzling start.  I'll caution you all to be aware that we are 3 games in, and, plainly said, shit happens in baseball.  But for right now, by all means, enjoy the ride.  Jackson picked up another 4 hits today, and scored 3 runs along with them.  Boesch collected his first two hits today; finally being rewarded after two days of hitting the ball well with nothing to show for it.  If Jackson and Boesch can get on base all season with at least similar consistency to the way they did today, this team is going to score at least 2.5, maybe a full 3 metricfuckton's of runs. 

Miguel Cabrera is, simply put, the single greatest hitter I have ever seen in my life.  Yes, I'm only 22, but I remember Mark McGwire.  I watched Barry Bonds.  I've watched Pujols and Braun and Votto and all of them.  Guess what?  I'll take Cabby in a runaway.  Today, trailing 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th, Cabrera stepped to the plate with Jackson and Boesch on base (SEE!  GET ON BASE!!)  Boston closer Alfredo Aceves threw Cabrera a 2 seam fastball that tailed right out over the plate.  Cabby did not miss it, sending into the LF seats and tying the game.

A couple innings later, down again, this time 12-10, Cabrera started things off again.  With one out and the bases empty, he lined a single into RF.  Prince Fielder followed that by singling down the LF line against an overshifted Boston IF.  After a wild pitch advanced Cabrera to 3rd, Delmon Young Sac Flied him in.  12-11.  Avila stepped to the plate, and proceeded to send Detroit into a frenzy by unleashing a drive to RF to win the game, sweep the Red Sox, and walk off the Tigers for the 2nd time in 3 games.

The bullpen today was somewhat shaky, but got the job done.  With Scherzer lasting only 2 2/3, Leyland had to lean on everyone (except Papa Grande, who was sick).  The combination of Balester, Schlereth, Dotel, Villareal, Coke, Benoit, and Below managed to keep the Tigers in the game until Avila's walk off winner.

Duane Below faced just one batter, striking out Adrian Gonzalez in the top of the 11th and escaping a Benoit-induced jam.  Below also picked up the win, his second of the season and second of his career, moving him to 2-0 on the season and putting him on pace to win 108 games (no really, that was a tweet today, sent by none other than Ab(r)andon Inge author Phil.

Let's move onto some other tidbits:

-Fister is obviously out for at least 2 weeks, meaning he will miss 2-3 starts depending on how Leyland juggles things.  The Tigers called up Villarreal, presumably to take the long man role in the bullpen, thusly bumping Duane Below to the rotation.

-Leyland said that there had been no decision made regarding the rotation spot now vacant.  Tonight, Andy Oliver pitched for Toledo in front of Tiger's scouts.  He didn't do well, only going 3 2/3 while surrendering 5 R (2 ER) on 3 H and 5 BB.  The 5 BB is incredibly troubling, though he did also accumulate 5 K's.  Safe to say that Oliver is not being considered right now.

-Casey Crosby (a personal favorite of mine) takes the mound Monday night for Toledo.  Crosby, IMO, has the most upside of any pitcher in the Tigers system, with the obvious exception of Jacob Turner.  He has an incredibly live fastball from the left side, showing very good armside movement and varying velocity from 93-97, occasionally touching 98 or so.  Very nasty spike curve, which he has trouble commanding.  He's more adept at burying it below the zone to get swings and misses than he is at throwing it for strikes (a la Verlander), but if he can figure it out he could be devastating.  Also has a changeup that I see more as a "show me" pitch, but could develop to at least major league average.  Crosby has been derailed by injury, but was fully healthy last season and despite an elevated ERA and WHIP, his numbers were promising.  Should he be successful at commanding his pitches and limiting walks Monday night, he may get the call up.

-Adam Wilk was Toledo's opening day starter, and he impressed.  However, I see Wilk as more of a swingman, long relief type guy.  He has incredible command but lacks stuff, which doesn't translate well to the majors unless you're Greg Maddux. 

We will seemingly know more by this time tomorrow, as Crosby will have finished his start in Toledo.  As of right now, I would give Below a start and see what happens.  If he gets shelled, it's one game and you can always dip into the minor league well following that.

As always, Beer, Broads, and Tigers Baseball to you all

Also, Happy Easter from all of us here at Ab(r)andon Inge



Tigers Season Preview Part 4

Moving forward in my Tigers season preview series, today we'll take a look at Starting Pitching.

1) Justin Verlander RHP

Perhaps you've heard of him.  He did a few positive things last season for the Tigers, including winning the pitching Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts), winning the AL Cy Young award, winning the AL MVP award, and being a complete cyborg on the mound, since no one who's actually human can do what he did.  JV is quite simply the best pitcher in all of baseball, and I would welcome someone to argue that.  I believe he may be due for a little regression this year, as he did get helped out a bit by luck last season, but not much.  Also, it's incredibly important to remember that pitcher wins as a stat are completely meaningless.  If you are a person who uses wins to judge the value of a pitcher, immediately log off of this blog, and never watch/listen to/talk about a baseball game ever again, because you are an idiot.  Verlander offers 4 above average major league pitches, with a fastball he throws anywhere from 91-101 MPH with great life, a curve he can throw for strikes or as a strikeout pitch, a slider thats still developing, and a changeup that moves and looks the same as his fastball, but is often 10+ MPH less.  His fastball grades out at an 80, his curve and change are plus pitches, and his slider flashes plus potential at times.  Let's see some stats shall we?

2011 Stats: 34 GS, 4 CG, 251 IP, 24-5, 2.40 ERA, .92 WHIP, 250 K, 57 BB.  5:1 K:BB, 9 K/9IP
2012 Predictions: 34 GS, 5 CG, 250 IP, 20-7, 2.65 ERA, .98 WHIP, 235 K, 60 BB, 4:1 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

2) Doug Fister RHP

The midseason acquistion from Seattle cost quite a bit, including a potential future closer (Chance Ruffin) and a potential above-average 3rd basemen (Francisco Martinez).  Key word: Potential.  For how good Fister pitched for the Tigers last season, it should have cost a helluva lot more than it did.  With the Tigers, Fister started 11 games, went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and .84 WHIP, all the while cementing himself as the #2 in the rotation.  Fister is more of a contact pitcher when compared to guys like JV or Scherzer, but increased his strikeout rate substantially last season.  He can throw about 5 different pitches depending on the day.  He throws a basic fastball that touches the low 90s in terms of velo, but also can vary the grip on the fastball so as to sink it or cut it, both of which sit in the high 80s.  His curve really came on with the Tigers, flashing plus potential, and resulting in more strikeouts.  His changeup is the weakest pitch he has, but it still is 50-55 (scout grading) with good movement when he throws it right.  Fister is who Porcello should aspire to be: A groundball pitcher than can get strikeouts when he needs to.  Fister may also be due for some regression, as the Tigers have worsened their defense by moving Cabby to 3rd and signing Prince Fielder, but like Verlander, the regression shouldn't be too substantial.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 3 CG, 216 1/3 IP, 11-13, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 146 K, 37 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 33 GS, 4 CG, 225 IP, 16-8, 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 160 K, 40 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.4 K/9 IP

3) Max Scherzer RHP

Max suffered the most regression of anyone last season, seeing his ERA jump almost an entire run, along with increases in his WHIP and HR allowed, but saw his BB's drop significantly.  Max showed just how dominant he could be with the Tigers in 2010's second half, where he took his place as 1B to JV's 1A.  Max is a 3 pitch pitcher, who, when he's on, can absolutely take over and dominate games.  He's more of a strikeout pitcher than anyone on the roster (moreso than JV because JV doesn't HAVE to strike you out to dominate, Max usually does).  He throws a plus 2 seam fastball that sits anywhere from 92-96 on a regular basis, and has incredible life at the plate.  He throws a slider that can be the ultimate strikeout weapon when he throws it right, but when it's off it looks like a batting practice fastball.  His changeup has progressed to become (in my opinion) his 2nd best pitch, when he keeps it down.  When he keeps it down it looks just like his fastball coming out of his hand, but at 84-86 MPH is obviously slower.  It tails in the same way his FB does, away from lefties and into righties, but when it stays up it causes trouble.  It sometimes has excellent down to go along with the tail, resulting in a plus offering.  If Max can simply KEEP THE DAMNED BALL DOWN more consistently, he can be dominating.

2011 Stats: 33 GS, 0 CG, 195 IP, 15-9, 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 174 K, 56 BB.  3.1 K:BB, 8 K/9 IP.
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 1 CG, 190 IP, 16-10, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K, 60 BB.  3 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

Rick Porcello RHP

Ricky P is one of my favorite Tigers.  Maybe its because we're so close age wise, but for some reason I've always been drawn to the young sinkerballer that impressed us so much as a 20 year old rookie in 2009.  Rick took a giant step back in 2010, but definitely improved last year, even though he still didn't hit the same success he had in 2009.  I believe Rick will have a huge year in 2012.  PUT IT IN STONE: Brian says, on 4/6/2012, that Rick Porcello will have a great year and cement himself as the #3 guy in the Tigers rotation. Rick is a sinkerball pitcher, which means that he throws a fastball with a different grip that generates downward movement as it reaches the plate, resulting in tons of groundballs.  He is moreso a sinkerballer than Fister, even though they both throw sinkers.  Rick can have games where he goes 8 innings on 75 pitches, or where he's knocked out in the 2nd inning, all due to how effective his sinker is on a given night.  He was heralded as the next great fireballer coming out of high school, where he reportedly hit 98 MPH.  Wisely, IMO, the Tigers felt that more success would come for Rick if he established the sinker as his primary pitch, which has sat 88-91 in his career.  This year; however, reports are saying that his sinker is now more 89-93 with more bite, and his 4 seam has touched 95.  With this added velo, along with developing secondary pitches (slider, curve, change, etc), Rick should add substantially to his strikeout totals this season.  We started to see his strikeout potential most especially in the playoffs last season.  I have huge hopes for Ricky P this season.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 0 CG, 182 IP, 14-9, 4.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 104 K, 46 BB.  2.26:1 K:BB, 5.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 2 CG, 195 IP, 17-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 145 K, 50 BB, 3:1 K:BB, 6.7 K/9 IP

5) Drew Smyly LHP

First let me say this: I really like Drew Smyly.  I think he has the potential to be a good-above average major league starter, and would fit the bill as the 5 starter on the Tigers perfectly.  That being said, I don't believe that Smyly will stick around all season.  Not so much because of him, but because of what is waiting in Toledo.  Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, and Casey Crosby (we'll get into all of them more in the prospect preview part of this series) all have higher upsides and better pure stuff than Smyly does.  Smyly is miles ahead of them at the moment in terms of pitchability though, hence why Smyly will be starting the season in Detroit, and not at Erie or Toledo.  Smyly offers a 4 pitch mix, fastball-cutter-curve-changeup, all of which he controls pretty well and can throw in any count.  He's not projected to be a strikeout pitcher at the MLB level, but has had success in the minors in terms of strikeouts.  He changes speeds on all his pitches well, with his fastball velo sitting around 88-92 consistently, clocked as high as 95.  His cutter is his best weapon, IMO.  Like Porcello's sinker, Smyly's cutter is used to generate weak contact, although not necessarily on the ground.  Weak contact is fantastic from a pitchers perspective, regardless of where the ball ends up.  I have good faith in Smyly, and wish him all the best.

2012 Predictions: 12 GS, 0 CG, 63 IP, 4-6, 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 48 K, 19 BB, 2.53:1 K:BB, 6.85 K/9 IP


That's your starting 5 for the time being.  Although it certainly would not surprise me to see Duane Below, Adam Wilk, Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, Casey Crosby, or Colin Balester get starts in Detroit this season.

Finally, a quick note on pitcher wins as a stat.  As I soapboxed above, they're just as irrelevant of a stat as RBI and should not be paid attention to at all.  A couple examples: Max Scherzer set a career high in wins in 2011 with 15.  Was 2011 his best season as a major league pitcher?  Not even close.  Also, Doug Fister went 11-13 last year.  11-13 FERGODSAKES.  Does that mean that Doug Fister had a mediocre, sub-par season in 2011 as his record indicates?  Absofuckinglutely not. 

Perhaps the best example I can give is the Tigers opening game yesterday.  Justin Verlander went 8 innings, giving up 2 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, while striking out 7.  Jose Valverde went 1 inning, while giving up 3 hits and 2 runs.  Jose Valverde got the win in the game.  Justiv Verlander did not.  Are you going to try and tell me that Valverde is the better pitcher?