Ab(r)andon Inge Staff Picks: NHL Playoffs Edition (Part 1)

The staff here at Ab(r)andon Inge has put together their individual picks for the NHL Playoffs.  

*Note: The NHL Playoffs are weird, and they re-seed following each round.  We have taken that into account with our picks, but this is just a warning in case you see some inconsistencies in terms of teams playing each other in particular rounds, etc.

Without further ado:

Ryan Prohaska (@Ryan_M_Pro)

Western Conference 1st Round-

(1) Vancouver vs. (8) Los Angeles

Winner: Vancouver

(2) St. Louis vs. (7) San Jose

Winner: St. Louis

(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Chicago

Winner: Chicago

(4) Nashville vs. (5) Detroit

Winner: Detroit

Eastern Conference 1st Round-

(1) New York vs. (8) Ottawa

Winner: New York

(2) Boston vs. (7) Washington

Winner: Boston

(3) Florida vs. (6) New Jersey

Winner: New Jersey

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia

Winner: Philadelphia

Western Conference 2nd Round-

(1) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago

Winner: Vancouver

(2) St. Louis vs. (3) Detroit

Winner: Detroit

Eastern Conference 2nd Round-

(1) New York vs. (4) New Jersey

Winner: New York

(2) Boston vs. (3) Philadelphia

Winner: Boston

Western Conference Finals-

(1) Vancouver vs. (2) Detroit

Winner: Detroit

Eastern Conference Finals-

(1) New York vs. (2) Boston

Winner: New York

Stanley Cup Finals-

New York vs. Detroit

Winner: New York

(ed-Brian: really?  A New York team over Detroit?  You're fired)

Brian Sakowski (@B_Sakowski)

Western Conference 1st Round-

(1) Vancouver vs. (8) Los Angeles

Winner: Vancouver

(2) St. Louis vs. (7) San Jose

Winner: The arena collapsing...but seriously...St. Louis

(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Chicago

Winner: This is why NHL seeding is dumb, Phoenix is terrible, yet are a 3-seed.  Chicago in 5 at most

(4) Nashville vs. (5) Detroit

Winner: Detroit...HEY HEY HOCKEYTOWN

Eastern Conference 1st Round (do I even care?)-

(1) New York vs. (8) Ottawa

Winner: New York

(2) Boston vs. (7) Washington

Winner: Washington...Ovechkin celly so hard

(3) Florida vs. (6) New Jersey

Winner: Florida....so that Zach Parise is so depressed he runs to Ken Holland with open arms and signs with Detroit

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia

WInner: Pittsburgh...as much as I hate Cindy Crosby you can't deny the little girl has talent

Western Conference 2nd Round-

(1) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago

Winner: Vancouver...and I hope Patty Kane is so pissed that he takes it out on the first unsuspecting cab driver and gets suspended for life

(2) St. Louis vs. (3) Detroit

Winner: Detroit...St. Louis has had a cute season, but no one in the world can compare to the Wings in terms of playoff grit

Eastern Conference 2nd Round-

(1) New York vs. (4) Washington

Winner: Washington...because seriously fuck anything New York

(2) Florida vs. (3) Pittsburgh

Winner: Pittsburgh...because I didn't even realize that Florida had a hockey team

Western Conference Finals

(1) Vancouver vs. (2) Detroit

Winner: Van-----Lol like I'm going to pick against the Wings.  Detroit

Eastern Conference Finals-

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (2) Washington

Winner: Washington...because I want to see Sidney Crosby cry

Stanley Cups Finals

Detroit vs. Washington

Winner: DETROIT CELLY SO HARD WOO HOMER PICK

**Editors note: I will post Phil and Frank's predictions tomorrow when I can keep my eyes open

Tigers Season Preview Part 4

Moving forward in my Tigers season preview series, today we'll take a look at Starting Pitching.

1) Justin Verlander RHP

Perhaps you've heard of him.  He did a few positive things last season for the Tigers, including winning the pitching Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts), winning the AL Cy Young award, winning the AL MVP award, and being a complete cyborg on the mound, since no one who's actually human can do what he did.  JV is quite simply the best pitcher in all of baseball, and I would welcome someone to argue that.  I believe he may be due for a little regression this year, as he did get helped out a bit by luck last season, but not much.  Also, it's incredibly important to remember that pitcher wins as a stat are completely meaningless.  If you are a person who uses wins to judge the value of a pitcher, immediately log off of this blog, and never watch/listen to/talk about a baseball game ever again, because you are an idiot.  Verlander offers 4 above average major league pitches, with a fastball he throws anywhere from 91-101 MPH with great life, a curve he can throw for strikes or as a strikeout pitch, a slider thats still developing, and a changeup that moves and looks the same as his fastball, but is often 10+ MPH less.  His fastball grades out at an 80, his curve and change are plus pitches, and his slider flashes plus potential at times.  Let's see some stats shall we?

2011 Stats: 34 GS, 4 CG, 251 IP, 24-5, 2.40 ERA, .92 WHIP, 250 K, 57 BB.  5:1 K:BB, 9 K/9IP
2012 Predictions: 34 GS, 5 CG, 250 IP, 20-7, 2.65 ERA, .98 WHIP, 235 K, 60 BB, 4:1 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

2) Doug Fister RHP

The midseason acquistion from Seattle cost quite a bit, including a potential future closer (Chance Ruffin) and a potential above-average 3rd basemen (Francisco Martinez).  Key word: Potential.  For how good Fister pitched for the Tigers last season, it should have cost a helluva lot more than it did.  With the Tigers, Fister started 11 games, went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and .84 WHIP, all the while cementing himself as the #2 in the rotation.  Fister is more of a contact pitcher when compared to guys like JV or Scherzer, but increased his strikeout rate substantially last season.  He can throw about 5 different pitches depending on the day.  He throws a basic fastball that touches the low 90s in terms of velo, but also can vary the grip on the fastball so as to sink it or cut it, both of which sit in the high 80s.  His curve really came on with the Tigers, flashing plus potential, and resulting in more strikeouts.  His changeup is the weakest pitch he has, but it still is 50-55 (scout grading) with good movement when he throws it right.  Fister is who Porcello should aspire to be: A groundball pitcher than can get strikeouts when he needs to.  Fister may also be due for some regression, as the Tigers have worsened their defense by moving Cabby to 3rd and signing Prince Fielder, but like Verlander, the regression shouldn't be too substantial.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 3 CG, 216 1/3 IP, 11-13, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 146 K, 37 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 33 GS, 4 CG, 225 IP, 16-8, 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 160 K, 40 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.4 K/9 IP

3) Max Scherzer RHP

Max suffered the most regression of anyone last season, seeing his ERA jump almost an entire run, along with increases in his WHIP and HR allowed, but saw his BB's drop significantly.  Max showed just how dominant he could be with the Tigers in 2010's second half, where he took his place as 1B to JV's 1A.  Max is a 3 pitch pitcher, who, when he's on, can absolutely take over and dominate games.  He's more of a strikeout pitcher than anyone on the roster (moreso than JV because JV doesn't HAVE to strike you out to dominate, Max usually does).  He throws a plus 2 seam fastball that sits anywhere from 92-96 on a regular basis, and has incredible life at the plate.  He throws a slider that can be the ultimate strikeout weapon when he throws it right, but when it's off it looks like a batting practice fastball.  His changeup has progressed to become (in my opinion) his 2nd best pitch, when he keeps it down.  When he keeps it down it looks just like his fastball coming out of his hand, but at 84-86 MPH is obviously slower.  It tails in the same way his FB does, away from lefties and into righties, but when it stays up it causes trouble.  It sometimes has excellent down to go along with the tail, resulting in a plus offering.  If Max can simply KEEP THE DAMNED BALL DOWN more consistently, he can be dominating.

2011 Stats: 33 GS, 0 CG, 195 IP, 15-9, 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 174 K, 56 BB.  3.1 K:BB, 8 K/9 IP.
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 1 CG, 190 IP, 16-10, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K, 60 BB.  3 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

Rick Porcello RHP

Ricky P is one of my favorite Tigers.  Maybe its because we're so close age wise, but for some reason I've always been drawn to the young sinkerballer that impressed us so much as a 20 year old rookie in 2009.  Rick took a giant step back in 2010, but definitely improved last year, even though he still didn't hit the same success he had in 2009.  I believe Rick will have a huge year in 2012.  PUT IT IN STONE: Brian says, on 4/6/2012, that Rick Porcello will have a great year and cement himself as the #3 guy in the Tigers rotation. Rick is a sinkerball pitcher, which means that he throws a fastball with a different grip that generates downward movement as it reaches the plate, resulting in tons of groundballs.  He is moreso a sinkerballer than Fister, even though they both throw sinkers.  Rick can have games where he goes 8 innings on 75 pitches, or where he's knocked out in the 2nd inning, all due to how effective his sinker is on a given night.  He was heralded as the next great fireballer coming out of high school, where he reportedly hit 98 MPH.  Wisely, IMO, the Tigers felt that more success would come for Rick if he established the sinker as his primary pitch, which has sat 88-91 in his career.  This year; however, reports are saying that his sinker is now more 89-93 with more bite, and his 4 seam has touched 95.  With this added velo, along with developing secondary pitches (slider, curve, change, etc), Rick should add substantially to his strikeout totals this season.  We started to see his strikeout potential most especially in the playoffs last season.  I have huge hopes for Ricky P this season.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 0 CG, 182 IP, 14-9, 4.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 104 K, 46 BB.  2.26:1 K:BB, 5.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 2 CG, 195 IP, 17-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 145 K, 50 BB, 3:1 K:BB, 6.7 K/9 IP

5) Drew Smyly LHP

First let me say this: I really like Drew Smyly.  I think he has the potential to be a good-above average major league starter, and would fit the bill as the 5 starter on the Tigers perfectly.  That being said, I don't believe that Smyly will stick around all season.  Not so much because of him, but because of what is waiting in Toledo.  Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, and Casey Crosby (we'll get into all of them more in the prospect preview part of this series) all have higher upsides and better pure stuff than Smyly does.  Smyly is miles ahead of them at the moment in terms of pitchability though, hence why Smyly will be starting the season in Detroit, and not at Erie or Toledo.  Smyly offers a 4 pitch mix, fastball-cutter-curve-changeup, all of which he controls pretty well and can throw in any count.  He's not projected to be a strikeout pitcher at the MLB level, but has had success in the minors in terms of strikeouts.  He changes speeds on all his pitches well, with his fastball velo sitting around 88-92 consistently, clocked as high as 95.  His cutter is his best weapon, IMO.  Like Porcello's sinker, Smyly's cutter is used to generate weak contact, although not necessarily on the ground.  Weak contact is fantastic from a pitchers perspective, regardless of where the ball ends up.  I have good faith in Smyly, and wish him all the best.

2012 Predictions: 12 GS, 0 CG, 63 IP, 4-6, 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 48 K, 19 BB, 2.53:1 K:BB, 6.85 K/9 IP


That's your starting 5 for the time being.  Although it certainly would not surprise me to see Duane Below, Adam Wilk, Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, Casey Crosby, or Colin Balester get starts in Detroit this season.

Finally, a quick note on pitcher wins as a stat.  As I soapboxed above, they're just as irrelevant of a stat as RBI and should not be paid attention to at all.  A couple examples: Max Scherzer set a career high in wins in 2011 with 15.  Was 2011 his best season as a major league pitcher?  Not even close.  Also, Doug Fister went 11-13 last year.  11-13 FERGODSAKES.  Does that mean that Doug Fister had a mediocre, sub-par season in 2011 as his record indicates?  Absofuckinglutely not. 

Perhaps the best example I can give is the Tigers opening game yesterday.  Justin Verlander went 8 innings, giving up 2 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, while striking out 7.  Jose Valverde went 1 inning, while giving up 3 hits and 2 runs.  Jose Valverde got the win in the game.  Justiv Verlander did not.  Are you going to try and tell me that Valverde is the better pitcher?

Tigers Season Preview Part 3

Let's finish off the positional players, shall we?

8) Alex Avila C

The iron man.  Alex Avila has quickly become one of "my Tigers" for obvious reasons.  He's an absolute horse behind the plate; playing 141 games last year, which is absolutely unheard of for a catcher.  He had a breakout year both at and behind the dish.  He threw out 32% of baserunners attempting to steal, a stat that could have easily been a few points higher had Jacob Turner or Brad Penny been competant at holding runners.  He won the Silver Slugger award as a catcher, and finished in the top-10 MVP voting; along with being a first time all-star.  Like Peralta, I expect a bit of regression from Avila, but not very much, and much of it may be due to less playing time (WHICH IS A GOOD THING)

2011 Stats: .295/.389/.506/.895.  33 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 82 RBI, 63 R.  131 K, 73 BB, 3 SB.
2012 Predictions: .282/.378/.498/.876.  28 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 58 R.  115 K, 65 BB, 2 SB.

9) Ramon Santiago 2B (also SS, and maybe 3B)

Captain Solidity.  Sneaky Power.  Little Ramon.  Whatever you want to call him, the Tigers would not have been where they were last year without Ramon Santiago.  He's easily the best infielder on the team, and is the ultimate "little things" guy.  He will bunt, hit and run, move runners, take the extra base, etc, all of the things that SABR experts find to be unnecessary, but IMO are still incredibly valuable to a team.  Santiago will play some 2B, some SS, and maybe a little 3B.  He SHOULD be starting over our hero, the Sultan of Oops, Brandon Inge, but he won't (at least until May when Inge is released).

2011 Stats: .260/.311/.384/.695.  11 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 29 R.  38 K, 17 BB, 0 SB.
2012 Predictions: .262/.315/.374/.689.  10 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 26 R.  36 K, 15 BB, 1 SB

Bench

**I will not be doing statistical projections for the bench players (or bullpen guys either).  Just a quick summary of what I expect from them/what they bring to the team

Gerald Laird C

Many Tigers fans weren't happy when Laird was signed this offseason from the Cardinals, probably due to the sour taste left in our mouths from Laird's performance offensively his last season here (2010).  Personally, I was rather excited about the signing.  Avila lacked a capable backup last season following Victor Martinez's injury, so he wore down quickly down the stretch.  Laird will provide more than capable defense, and at least average hitting against LHP, which is whom he will play mostly against.  Most importantly, with a capable backup like Laird, Avila will be able to play 120 games or so, rather than 141, and ideally be more healthy and fresh come the pennant chase.

Donnie Kelly P/C/1B/2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF/DH

Where would Jim Leyland be without Donnie Kelly?  The poster boy of versatility managed to play all 9 positions for the Tigers last season, and led the pitching staff with a 0.00 ERA and 0.00 WHIP in 1/3 IP.  Kelly provides a valuable asset to any lineup, and is irreplaceable as far as I'm concerned in terms of versatility.  My biggest pet peeve with Kelly is not even his own fault; it's when Leyland decides to plug him into the 4 hole or something else ridiculous.  Kelly is a left-handed bat, who plays pretty good defense regardless of where you put him (he's a better OF, however).  He has some pop in his bat, but you wouldn't call him a power hitter.  Either way, Kelly is a valued member of the Tigers (sorry Rogo).

Andy Dirks OF

Dirks is a guy that absolutely confounds scouts.  He really has no above average major league tools in his game, but somehow is a pretty good baseball player.  He has a decent arm, decent speed, and a decent bat, with solid power and solid defense.  Is able to play a capable CF, which helps when Austin Jackson needs a rest, and hits LH with more power than Kelly; should Leyland need a LH bat off the bench in late innings.  I believe Dirks should be on the team over Clete Thomas, who I'll get to in a second, but that's why I'm writing this blog and not managing the Tigers (yet). 

Clete Thomas OF

Thomas is somewhat the exact opposite of Dirks.  Whereas Dirks is simply solid all around, Thomas is the more toolsy, boom-or-bust player.  Thomas is the player that makes me miss Casper Wells (we love you Casp-Dawg-Phil).  Thomas has a plus arm from the outfield, runs better than Dirks, and has more raw power than Dirks.  The main difference is that while Dirks will hit .250-.260 and get on base at a decent clip, Thomas will hit .215-.225, strike out a metric fuckton, but hit for much more power.  This is where I believe that Leyland will ultimately take Thomas over Dirks as his 4th OF.  If Leyland needed an everyday LF, he would take Dirks, the more solid all around player.  But since Leyland looks at a 4th OF as a late-innings defensive replacement who can throw a runner out at home, or as a pinch hitter who can end a game with one swing of the bat, Thomas gets the nod over Dirks.

(sigh) Brandon Inge (sigh)

Don't get me wrong people.  I liked Inge when he was in his prime ('06-'07).  He played gold-glove caliber defense at 3B, had plus power at the plate, drove in runs, and was an all around likeable guy.  Then Inge wasn't Inge anymore.  His defense dropped significantly, his power disappeared, and what was left was a whiny, spoiled baseball player adored for some reason by uneducated fans.  I mean, hell, even if Inge couldn't hit the broadside of a barn (which he can't), yet still could play GOLD GLOVE (not solid, spectacular) defense, I would want him on this team, because with this lineup, you can afford to have 1 offensive liability.  But the fact of the matter is that Inge has run his course as a baseball player IMO.  Honest to God, I hope he proves me wrong and hits 40 bombs this year and wins the damned MVP.  I would welcome that, because it would mean that the Tigers would be a better team.  I just don't see anything even in the same realm of logic as that happening. 


Part 4 coming next: Starting Pitchers

Ab(r)andon Inge Roundtable #1: Will the Red Wings Win the Stanley Cup this season?

Good Evening (Morning) ladies and gentlemen-

We here at Ab(r)andon Inge have decided to do a weekly roundtable post, where we all give our insight and opinion on a single question relating to Detroit sports.

This week, the question is:

Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Stanley Cup this season?


Ryan Prohaska (@Ryan_M_Pro):

In short, I do not believe the Wings can win the cup.  Considering they will most likely play 3 of the 4 series on the road, where they struggle, I do not see them being able to pull it off.  I think they will make the conference finals and lose in 6 games to Vancouver.

Phil Johnson (@DoWorkLaRoy):

If you put a fork to my nose and asked me if the Red Wings would win the Stanley Cup, I'd say yes. If you put a fork to my nose and asked me if the Red Wings would win the Stanley Cup this year, I'd say no. The lack of firepower from the team since the 23 game home winning streak ended has been alarming. Unless the power play pulls a Franzen and wakes up in the playoffs, I think this Wings team will bow out in the first or second round depending on the draw.

Frank Vajcner (@Frank_Vajcner):

It’s hard to bet against The Red Wings in the playoffs. With players that have been on the team for at least one cup winning season, you can always expect them to be in contention. This year is no different. The Wings don’t have a dominant 40-plus goal scorer, but they don’t need one when they get balanced goal scoring. Four players (Johan Franzen, Jiri Hudler, Valtteri Filppula, and Henrik Zetterberg) have scored at least 20 goals this season, and the team has gotten an NHL-best 44 goals from their defensemen. Plus Jimmy Howard has been a lot better in goal, posting a 2.14 GAA and a .920 save percentage. On the injury front, the only player that will be out is center Darren Helm. The only knock against the Wings is their power play, which is ranked 21^st in the NHL.

Despite only being able to possibly secure the 4^th seed in the Western Conference, the Red Wings have the talent and coaching to win their 12^th Stanley Cup. The keys to success will be to improve the power play, and avoid a first round matchup with Nashville, or with San Jose without home-ice advantage.  The Wings have not been good on the road, and that is why the wait for cup number twelve will continue until at least next season.

Brian Sakowski (@B_Sakowski):

Admittedly, I'm not the biggest hockey guy.  I love watching the Wings, but that's about as far as my interest in the sport goes.  I do know from watching the Wings this season that they play ridiculously well at home, not so well on the road, rely on 1-2 actually consistent players (Datsyuk, Pavel; and Lidstrom, Nicklas), and then ride the hot streaks of others for X amount of games at a time (Filpulla, Franzen, etc).  If these streaky players decide to catch fire all at once, and maintain it for a month, then yes, I do believe that the Wings will win the Stanley Cup.  However, for the sake of not sounding like a ridiculous slappy, I will say no, not this year.

LGRW