Tigers Season Preview Part 4

Moving forward in my Tigers season preview series, today we'll take a look at Starting Pitching.

1) Justin Verlander RHP

Perhaps you've heard of him.  He did a few positive things last season for the Tigers, including winning the pitching Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts), winning the AL Cy Young award, winning the AL MVP award, and being a complete cyborg on the mound, since no one who's actually human can do what he did.  JV is quite simply the best pitcher in all of baseball, and I would welcome someone to argue that.  I believe he may be due for a little regression this year, as he did get helped out a bit by luck last season, but not much.  Also, it's incredibly important to remember that pitcher wins as a stat are completely meaningless.  If you are a person who uses wins to judge the value of a pitcher, immediately log off of this blog, and never watch/listen to/talk about a baseball game ever again, because you are an idiot.  Verlander offers 4 above average major league pitches, with a fastball he throws anywhere from 91-101 MPH with great life, a curve he can throw for strikes or as a strikeout pitch, a slider thats still developing, and a changeup that moves and looks the same as his fastball, but is often 10+ MPH less.  His fastball grades out at an 80, his curve and change are plus pitches, and his slider flashes plus potential at times.  Let's see some stats shall we?

2011 Stats: 34 GS, 4 CG, 251 IP, 24-5, 2.40 ERA, .92 WHIP, 250 K, 57 BB.  5:1 K:BB, 9 K/9IP
2012 Predictions: 34 GS, 5 CG, 250 IP, 20-7, 2.65 ERA, .98 WHIP, 235 K, 60 BB, 4:1 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

2) Doug Fister RHP

The midseason acquistion from Seattle cost quite a bit, including a potential future closer (Chance Ruffin) and a potential above-average 3rd basemen (Francisco Martinez).  Key word: Potential.  For how good Fister pitched for the Tigers last season, it should have cost a helluva lot more than it did.  With the Tigers, Fister started 11 games, went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and .84 WHIP, all the while cementing himself as the #2 in the rotation.  Fister is more of a contact pitcher when compared to guys like JV or Scherzer, but increased his strikeout rate substantially last season.  He can throw about 5 different pitches depending on the day.  He throws a basic fastball that touches the low 90s in terms of velo, but also can vary the grip on the fastball so as to sink it or cut it, both of which sit in the high 80s.  His curve really came on with the Tigers, flashing plus potential, and resulting in more strikeouts.  His changeup is the weakest pitch he has, but it still is 50-55 (scout grading) with good movement when he throws it right.  Fister is who Porcello should aspire to be: A groundball pitcher than can get strikeouts when he needs to.  Fister may also be due for some regression, as the Tigers have worsened their defense by moving Cabby to 3rd and signing Prince Fielder, but like Verlander, the regression shouldn't be too substantial.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 3 CG, 216 1/3 IP, 11-13, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 146 K, 37 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 33 GS, 4 CG, 225 IP, 16-8, 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 160 K, 40 BB.  4:1 K:BB, 6.4 K/9 IP

3) Max Scherzer RHP

Max suffered the most regression of anyone last season, seeing his ERA jump almost an entire run, along with increases in his WHIP and HR allowed, but saw his BB's drop significantly.  Max showed just how dominant he could be with the Tigers in 2010's second half, where he took his place as 1B to JV's 1A.  Max is a 3 pitch pitcher, who, when he's on, can absolutely take over and dominate games.  He's more of a strikeout pitcher than anyone on the roster (moreso than JV because JV doesn't HAVE to strike you out to dominate, Max usually does).  He throws a plus 2 seam fastball that sits anywhere from 92-96 on a regular basis, and has incredible life at the plate.  He throws a slider that can be the ultimate strikeout weapon when he throws it right, but when it's off it looks like a batting practice fastball.  His changeup has progressed to become (in my opinion) his 2nd best pitch, when he keeps it down.  When he keeps it down it looks just like his fastball coming out of his hand, but at 84-86 MPH is obviously slower.  It tails in the same way his FB does, away from lefties and into righties, but when it stays up it causes trouble.  It sometimes has excellent down to go along with the tail, resulting in a plus offering.  If Max can simply KEEP THE DAMNED BALL DOWN more consistently, he can be dominating.

2011 Stats: 33 GS, 0 CG, 195 IP, 15-9, 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 174 K, 56 BB.  3.1 K:BB, 8 K/9 IP.
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 1 CG, 190 IP, 16-10, 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K, 60 BB.  3 K:BB, 8.5 K/9 IP

Rick Porcello RHP

Ricky P is one of my favorite Tigers.  Maybe its because we're so close age wise, but for some reason I've always been drawn to the young sinkerballer that impressed us so much as a 20 year old rookie in 2009.  Rick took a giant step back in 2010, but definitely improved last year, even though he still didn't hit the same success he had in 2009.  I believe Rick will have a huge year in 2012.  PUT IT IN STONE: Brian says, on 4/6/2012, that Rick Porcello will have a great year and cement himself as the #3 guy in the Tigers rotation. Rick is a sinkerball pitcher, which means that he throws a fastball with a different grip that generates downward movement as it reaches the plate, resulting in tons of groundballs.  He is moreso a sinkerballer than Fister, even though they both throw sinkers.  Rick can have games where he goes 8 innings on 75 pitches, or where he's knocked out in the 2nd inning, all due to how effective his sinker is on a given night.  He was heralded as the next great fireballer coming out of high school, where he reportedly hit 98 MPH.  Wisely, IMO, the Tigers felt that more success would come for Rick if he established the sinker as his primary pitch, which has sat 88-91 in his career.  This year; however, reports are saying that his sinker is now more 89-93 with more bite, and his 4 seam has touched 95.  With this added velo, along with developing secondary pitches (slider, curve, change, etc), Rick should add substantially to his strikeout totals this season.  We started to see his strikeout potential most especially in the playoffs last season.  I have huge hopes for Ricky P this season.

2011 Stats: 31 GS, 0 CG, 182 IP, 14-9, 4.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 104 K, 46 BB.  2.26:1 K:BB, 5.1 K/9 IP
2012 Predictions: 32 GS, 2 CG, 195 IP, 17-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 145 K, 50 BB, 3:1 K:BB, 6.7 K/9 IP

5) Drew Smyly LHP

First let me say this: I really like Drew Smyly.  I think he has the potential to be a good-above average major league starter, and would fit the bill as the 5 starter on the Tigers perfectly.  That being said, I don't believe that Smyly will stick around all season.  Not so much because of him, but because of what is waiting in Toledo.  Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, and Casey Crosby (we'll get into all of them more in the prospect preview part of this series) all have higher upsides and better pure stuff than Smyly does.  Smyly is miles ahead of them at the moment in terms of pitchability though, hence why Smyly will be starting the season in Detroit, and not at Erie or Toledo.  Smyly offers a 4 pitch mix, fastball-cutter-curve-changeup, all of which he controls pretty well and can throw in any count.  He's not projected to be a strikeout pitcher at the MLB level, but has had success in the minors in terms of strikeouts.  He changes speeds on all his pitches well, with his fastball velo sitting around 88-92 consistently, clocked as high as 95.  His cutter is his best weapon, IMO.  Like Porcello's sinker, Smyly's cutter is used to generate weak contact, although not necessarily on the ground.  Weak contact is fantastic from a pitchers perspective, regardless of where the ball ends up.  I have good faith in Smyly, and wish him all the best.

2012 Predictions: 12 GS, 0 CG, 63 IP, 4-6, 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 48 K, 19 BB, 2.53:1 K:BB, 6.85 K/9 IP


That's your starting 5 for the time being.  Although it certainly would not surprise me to see Duane Below, Adam Wilk, Jacob Turner, Andy Oliver, Casey Crosby, or Colin Balester get starts in Detroit this season.

Finally, a quick note on pitcher wins as a stat.  As I soapboxed above, they're just as irrelevant of a stat as RBI and should not be paid attention to at all.  A couple examples: Max Scherzer set a career high in wins in 2011 with 15.  Was 2011 his best season as a major league pitcher?  Not even close.  Also, Doug Fister went 11-13 last year.  11-13 FERGODSAKES.  Does that mean that Doug Fister had a mediocre, sub-par season in 2011 as his record indicates?  Absofuckinglutely not. 

Perhaps the best example I can give is the Tigers opening game yesterday.  Justin Verlander went 8 innings, giving up 2 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, while striking out 7.  Jose Valverde went 1 inning, while giving up 3 hits and 2 runs.  Jose Valverde got the win in the game.  Justiv Verlander did not.  Are you going to try and tell me that Valverde is the better pitcher?